Israel / Iran conspiracy theory ??

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  • pete repete

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    Ric-san

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    What’s stopping Gaza and the West Bank Palestinians from declaring a country like Israel did back in the day…? Look at us with Alaska next to Canada. What say you…?
     

    gunsrfun1

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    So Israel said years ago they would never allow Iran to get a nuclear weapon. It was all over the news that Israel knew months ahead of time about the most recent attack by Hamas. They said they were aware but they get thousands of threats is why it wasn’t taken seriously. I just read an article last week that said Iran is 10 days away from a nuclear weapon. What are the odds that Israel let Hamas attack their civilians on December 7 in order to have an excuse to bomb the hell out of Iran ???
    OP - To answer your question straight up: The odds are zero.
    Granted, politicians are a cynical bunch. But NOBODY in Israel would be cynical enough to sacrifice 1,200 dead Israelis and 200 hostages to have an "excuse" to bomb Iran. (They've had an excuse for years, just haven't done it yet, for reasons best left to another thread.)
    Israel values every soldier and civilian to an extent that is hard to explain to outsiders. That's why you see these lopsided exchanges where Israel frees 1,000 terrorists to get one Israeli back. It's just not in their DNA to do something like you describe and sacrifice Israeli lives.
    I just spent 3 1/2 weeks volunteering in Israel in a civilian capacity. They are totally focused on two things: 1) Getting the hostages back, and 2) Destroying Hamas. You may recall that before the Oct. 7 attack, Israelis were bickering like hell over a proposed change to their Supreme Court. There were demonstrations in the streets almost every day either for or against it. Some reservists were even threatening not to show up for duty. That ended on Oct. 7. Everyone is united and laser-focused on achieving the two goals I mentioned above.
    As to how these attacks could have occurred: The Oct. 7 attack was a classical intelligence failure, one of many that have occurred throughout military history. (Remember Pearl Harbor?) I have literally read several accounts where some Israeli soldiers on the front lines of Gaza tried to warn their superiors that "something" was going on in Gaza. They actually saw the Hamas guys practicing various things and alerted their superiors. Apparently, those soldiers were ignored and, some say, belittled for bringing it up. So, I can guarantee you that after the war is over, there will be a HUGE investigation in Israel, and heads will roll, possibly including some that are now conducting the war.
    But to reiterate my answer to your original question: The odds are zero.
    PS - Two street photos attached from my recent trip to Israel that illustrate my point. That first one is on a storefront, by the way.
    Hope this helps.
     

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    gunsrfun1

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    One of them over there many years ago said it best “They ( the palestinians) will never quit until they love their children more than they hate Israel.”
    I believe Golda Meir said that. She said something else during the 1973 Yom Kippur war that I have always liked as well: "If the Arabs put down their weapons today, there would be no more violence. If the Jews put down their weapons today, there would be no more Israel."
     

    JedClpIT

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    OP - To answer your question straight up: The odds are zero.
    Granted, politicians are a cynical bunch. But NOBODY in Israel would be cynical enough to sacrifice 1,200 dead Israelis and 200 hostages to have an "excuse" to bomb Iran. (They've had an excuse for years, just haven't done it yet, for reasons best left to another thread.)
    Israel values every soldier and civilian to an extent that is hard to explain to outsiders. That's why you see these lopsided exchanges where Israel frees 1,000 terrorists to get one Israeli back. It's just not in their DNA to do something like you describe and sacrifice Israeli lives.
    I just spent 3 1/2 weeks volunteering in Israel. They are totally focused on two things: 1) Getting the hostages back, and 2) Destroying Hamas. You may recall that before the Oct. 7 attack, Israelis were bickering like hell over a proposed change to their Supreme Court. There were demonstrations in the streets almost every day either for or against it. Some reservists were even threatening not to show up for duty. That ended on Oct. 7. Everyone is united and laser-focused on achieving the two goals I mentioned above.
    As to how these attacks could have occurred: The Oct. 7 attack was a classical intelligence failure, one of many that have occurred throughout military history. (Remember Pearl Harbor?) I have literally read several accounts where some Israeli soldiers on the front lines of Gaza tried to warn their superiors that "something" was going on in Gaza. They actually saw the Hamas guys practicing various things and alerted their superiors. Apparently, those soldiers were ignored and, some say, belittled for bringing it up. So, I can guarantee you that after the war is over, there will be a HUGE investigation in Israel, and heads will roll, possibly including some that are now conducting the war.
    But to reiterate my answer to your original question: The odds are zero.
    Hope this helps.
    So this IS the greatest surprise attack in the history of the world as we know it? ( encopassing the 5,784 years of Judah history)
     

    ccc

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    So this IS the greatest surprise attack in the history of the world as we know it? ( encopassing the 5,784 years of Judah history)
    Actually I think he made a great point, Pearl Harbor was much worse and our intelligence missed it.
     

    JedClpIT

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    And, if second only to Pearl Harbor , can you imagine what could be learned from this one? Technology disparity from 1940's to 2023 aside, to fool the un-fool-able as their primary enemy and focus... I'm not in the industry, but this could be interesting.
     

    jrsbike

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    So Israel said years ago they would never allow Iran to get a nuclear weapon. It was all over the news that Israel knew months ahead of time about the most recent attack by Hamas. They said they were aware but they get thousands of threats is why it wasn’t taken seriously. I just read an article last week that said Iran is 10 days away from a nuclear weapon. What are the odds that Israel let Hamas attack their civilians on December 7 in order to have an excuse to bomb the hell out of Iran ???
    I have not served but have worked for the government as an advisor for US funded construction projects abroad. In that capacity I have spent time in Egypt, Lebanon, Syria and Saudi Arabia. I went to these countries with an open mind and developed an interest in the history of the region. While Americans and Brit expats sat in compounds getting tanked I went out to see what was going on. To be brief, my basic take away was this: Arabs are diametrically different from those raised in the Judeo-Christian culture. Their religion allows them to have a form of free will when dealing with "non-believers". They can do what ever occurs to them and do this without guilt. Therefore they can kill and abuse freely. This is made clear in the later part of the Koran. On the other hand, guilt is a cornerstone of Judeo-Christian practice and in some ways holds us back. The Crusaders got around this with their motto "Deus Vult", God Wills or God's Will. This was the Crusader's 007 license to kill motto.
    All of the above is stated to serve as backdrop for our involvement in supporting Israel and the Ukraine. I am very concerned about the Biden administration providing unlimited funding to these countries. At the same time Blinken is running around pressuring the Israelis to hold back. That's why they have not been more aggressive. Its getting expensive but if Israel or the Ukraine go south then the dominos will start to fall very quickly and we will be in very very deep
    s--t. Don't forget, these countries are ultimately fighting for us as proxies so we don't have to put American troops in harm's way.
    Then there's the Chinese and Taiwan: not good. I need a drink.
     

    JedClpIT

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    I have not served but have worked for the government as an advisor for US funded construction projects abroad. In that capacity I have spent time in Egypt, Lebanon, Syria and Saudi Arabia. I went to these countries with an open mind and developed an interest in the history of the region. While Americans and Brit expats sat in compounds getting tanked I went out to see what was going on. To be brief, my basic take away was this: Arabs are diametrically different from those raised in the Judeo-Christian culture. Their religion allows them to have a form of free will when dealing with "non-believers". They can do what ever occurs to them and do this without guilt. Therefore they can kill and abuse freely. This is made clear in the later part of the Koran. On the other hand, guilt is a cornerstone of Judeo-Christian practice and in some ways holds us back. The Crusaders got around this with their motto "Deus Vult", God Wills or God's Will. This was the Crusader's 007 license to kill motto.
    All of the above is stated to serve as backdrop for our involvement in supporting Israel and the Ukraine. I am very concerned about the Biden administration providing unlimited funding to these countries. At the same time Blinken is running around pressuring the Israelis to hold back. That's why they have not been more aggressive. Its getting expensive but if Israel or the Ukraine go south then the dominos will start to fall very quickly and we will be in very very deep
    s--t. Don't forget, these countries are ultimately fighting for us as proxies so we don't have to put American troops in harm's way.
    Then there's the Chinese and Taiwan: not good. I need a drink.
    Let's check with Vegas. They have odds on everything. And they are usually right. Who to back and how much? Quite a gable for sure.
     

    sloporsche

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    I do not think israel and iran will go at each other for the time being BUT i do not think israel has adopted the policy like pearl harbor that they desire iran make the first overt move. I do believe israel will go nukes on iran and will have the covert blessing of more than a few powers if iran is too close to an operational nuke but i would not be shocked if they went rogue for their survival and went first strike nuclear .
     

    gunsrfun1

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    I have not served but have worked for the government as an advisor for US funded construction projects abroad. In that capacity I have spent time in Egypt, Lebanon, Syria and Saudi Arabia. I went to these countries with an open mind and developed an interest in the history of the region. While Americans and Brit expats sat in compounds getting tanked I went out to see what was going on. To be brief, my basic take away was this: Arabs are diametrically different from those raised in the Judeo-Christian culture. Their religion allows them to have a form of free will when dealing with "non-believers". They can do what ever occurs to them and do this without guilt. Therefore they can kill and abuse freely. This is made clear in the later part of the Koran. On the other hand, guilt is a cornerstone of Judeo-Christian practice and in some ways holds us back. The Crusaders got around this with their motto "Deus Vult", God Wills or God's Will. This was the Crusader's 007 license to kill motto.
    All of the above is stated to serve as backdrop for our involvement in supporting Israel and the Ukraine. I am very concerned about the Biden administration providing unlimited funding to these countries. At the same time Blinken is running around pressuring the Israelis to hold back. That's why they have not been more aggressive. Its getting expensive but if Israel or the Ukraine go south then the dominos will start to fall very quickly and we will be in very very deep
    s--t. Don't forget, these countries are ultimately fighting for us as proxies so we don't have to put American troops in harm's way.
    Then there's the Chinese and Taiwan: not good. I need a drink.
    Well put. Thanks
     

    JedClpIT

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    I do not think israel and iran will go at each other for the time being BUT i do not think israel has adopted the policy like pearl harbor that they desire iran make the first overt move. I do believe israel will go nukes on iran and will have the covert blessing of more than a few powers if iran is too close to an operational nuke but i would not be shocked if they went rogue for their survival and went first strike nuclear .
    Yes, Israel is in it to win it. They are not "very concerned" they are committed.
     

    Gumby Hunter

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    I believe Golda Meir said that. She said something else during the 1973 Yom Kippur war that I have always liked as well: "If the Arabs put down their weapons today, there would be no more violence. If the Jews put down their weapons today, there would be no more Israel."
    I thought so but wasn’t sure, thanks for the confirmation.
     
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