Hurricane pimps

[FrommerStop]

INVEST 95L
The weather people are doing their best to show it doing something to northwest fl. It could happen. Weather underground that I find to be very good has the following forecast.

 

[IronBeard]

Oddly enough, the most reliable track forecasts as far as spaghetti models have come from the European model for the last 5-6 years. What are they doing that we are not. You would think the "authorities" would wan to know, and maybe ask a question, or two. After all, we're global partners (eyes rolling).....

 

[FrommerStop]

Oddly enough, the most reliable track forecasts as far as spaghetti models have come from the European model for the last 5-6 years. What are they doing that we are not. You would think the "authorities" would wan to know, and maybe ask a question, or two. After all, we're global partners (eyes rolling).....

I watch models posted by weatherunderground and find them to be very accurate. When a storm gets close I follow from update to update. These are the models that they use. I do not know what the acronyms mean. Only three of them are predicting at the moment. We likely need to wait for the TD named I think Sally to make it to the gulf for the models to be stronger.

 

[IronBeard]

I watch models posted by weatherunderground and find them to be very accurate. When a storm gets close I follow from update to update. These are the models that they use. I do not know what the acronyms mean. Only three of them are predicting at the moment. We likely need to wait for the TD named I think Sally to make it to the gulf for the models to be stronger.

View attachment 92074

View attachment 92075

here are some:

HWRF is Hurricane Weather Forecast Model

CMC is Canadian Meteorological Center

UKMET is United Kingdom Meteorology

GFDL is Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory

GFSO is Global Forecast System Operational


You can guestimate by going with the middle of all the tracks, but UKMET is what I follow/rely on currently, even if they are off from the others. Have used Intelicast at work for years (.gov) and Wunderground. Both have now merged; bonus but has made their site harder to navigate. In all honesty, none are very "exact" until maybe 48-72 hours out, with 24 and inside being best. At that point, if you don't have a plan, it's probably too late. Been here long enough that I don't get overly concerned unless it's projected to hit land at Cat 4 or over.

 

[wildrider666]

Mulitple Models allow thousands of miles of wiggle room and classifications: we would just call them SWAGs. Lol

 

[JWlineman]

This has been a banner year for sure, OT has been abundant. Haha
Here's my go-to site...

spaghettimodels.com

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

 

[Big Shrek]

Cantore likes to be in the center of the action. The story was told that after hurricane Ivan, there was an after action session held at the Escambia County EOC. He supposedly asked what he could do to make things better. Somebody in the crowd said for him to stay the hell away from here.

 

[General Snafu]

If you guys would like to check out a great weather channel, go to www.wpbf.com/weather/radar
If you're willing to take the time to learn the ins and outs of the display and it's possibilities, it's the most up to date display you'll find. Yes, I know it's a West Palm Beach display but, you can set the home position to anywhere in the world and save the size of the map and the location. The left panel of the map can store numerous locations for you so you can make a change of location instantly. The right panel can store the size of the map, wind directions, temperature gradients, change the cloud density, choose a street map or satellite image, etc. That way, it will return to that map the next time you go to that link. Like I said, it will take some time playing with this website to fully understand it's capabilities, but when a hurricane is headed your way, it's a great tool to have. Just play with each button individually to see what changes each will make to the information displayed by the map.

Having been in the lightweight insulating concrete roof slab pouring business for 20 years and learning a bit about forecasting, made me pretty good at predicting the weather and where it was headed. Many times these clowns on the weather channel are so wrong it's laughable. Just the other night we saw some chick standing in the rain all by herself 30 feet from the camera, trying to give a report with her mask on. You couldn't understand a word she was saying but, that didn't stop her. We got a good laugh from it anyway.

 

[General Snafu]

This has been a banner year for sure, OT has been abundant. Haha
Here's my go-to site...

spaghettimodels.com

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

Almost too much info on that site but, I think he missed at least one https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-66.59,25.32,1038

 

[FrommerStop]

Latest cone and it is now listed to make cat 1

Models

 

[LowRiderRed]

Y'all are wasting your time trying to forecast and predict. Just grab a Sharpie and draw it where you want it.

 

[FrommerStop]

Y'all are wasting your time trying to forecast and predict. Just grab a Sharpie and draw it where you want it.

The models are all showing it making a U turn to the east. Not clear if it happens over water or on land.

 

[DBCDave]

Just turned on the weather channel it wasn’t five seconds before I heard the girl say surge could be up to 11 feet and put many homes completely underwater well bitch surge could be 1 foot too you chicken little piece of shit excuse my French

 

[Rebel_Rider1969]

ya gotta understand when filling 24 hours with 6 hours of news. Same for the regular news, short on facts long on bullshit.

 

[bohica793]

ya gotta understand when filling 24 hours with 6 MINUTES of news. Same for the regular news, short on facts long on bullshit.

Fixed it for you

 

[FrommerStop]

Here are the full spaghetti models

 

[SAWMAN]

Can someone show the high and low pressure zones. They are a "steering" factor for the storms direction. ---- SAWMAN

 

[Molon Labe]

Just turned on the weather channel it wasn’t five seconds before I heard the girl say surge could be up to 11 feet and put many homes completely underwater well bitch surge could be 1 foot too you chicken little piece of shit excuse my French

It's always required to put on your nice wet weather gear and find a water filled dip in the road and broadcast from there. Sometimes a pedestrian will walk down the sidewalk behind them and stare. Another requirement is to stand in front of a palm tree fluttering in the wind. When an oak tree starts this, I sit up and take notice.

 

[FrommerStop]

Can someone show the high and low pressure zones. They are a "steering" factor for the storms direction. ---- SAWMAN

Here is link with a lot of information and maybe the fronts are in there. I rather let someone else figure it out. https://spaghettimodels.com/

 

[Bay Ranger]

I used to work for the Naval Meteorology and Oceanography Command. Numerical models are getting better but most predictions are based on "ensemble", i.e. average of models used. If I learned one thing from folks that have a Masters Degree and higher is that there is no one correct answer. It's like the saying goes goes about ass holes.........

BTW, I am not a meteorologist.