A Three Month review of AR prices

[Gaijin]

On December 28th I decided to track the final sales price of ARs to determine when we may peak on the current crazy price situation. I tagged bids on GB for a standard Bushmaster 16" E2S NIB-- no used guns, no special add-ons like optics, just a vanilla .223 that would typically retail prior to the crisis at something under $1000.

I took an average of those bids on days where I was able to find at least six representative transactions that closed for this rifle. I did not include any data where the final bid was under the reserve, nor did I include any data from sellers who did not have at least one point of feedback.

As you can see, the prices peaked on December 29th, dipped and then another local high point on January 14th, the day before the 23 presidential executive orders were announced.

Prices have been decreasing since that time, and have been hovering around $1000 over the past week.

My assessment is that the price bubble for AR's has been deflated. While ammo prices are still generally high, the price of AR's appear to be at or near their retail offerings. I'm concluding the study of AR prices given this conclusion.

 

[gunnerxxx]

For those who didnt listen. I told you so!

 

[snakeplt]

Outstanding sir

 

[Welldoya]

Very interesting. Thanks for posting.

 

[Champ62]

Good posting,
Thanks.

 

[FrankT]

Is this just for Gun Broker, no other sites or local? Sold prices only? There is so much that affects the cost of a build and quality.

 

[Captken]

Using the completed sales on GB gives a unbias view and leaves the gougers out of the equation. They are going to complain anyway since they are still trying to get $1500 for that $799 Walmar AR. New from factory with no add on's was the best approach.
I've been watching the completed sales also and noticed the drop in gun prices but never went as far as grafting. You can say the same for ammo. Ammo prices from manufactors hasn't gone up, its some of the gun stores and gougers that has raised the prices. If you noticed, Walmart hasn't gone up much if any on prices as revealed last week when I bought a 100rd box of 9mm Federals for $21.99. If Federal had gone up on their prices then it would have been reflected in the retail price.
Went to the new Walmart yesterday evening to pick up a few things and was talking to the associate in the sporting goods. They said that they get a shipment every day between 3-4pm and they bring the stock out at 6pm. Their phone starts ringing before 4:00 with people asking what ammo came in and by 5:00, people are there waiting.

 

[Captken]

Is this just for Gun Broker, no other sites or local? Sold prices only? There is so much that affects the cost of a build and quality.

Sold prices only? So he should have included the pie in the sky prices that on one is biting on?

 

[2ndAmendmentShooting]

Ammo prices from manufactors hasn't gone up, its some of the gun stores and gougers that has raised the prices.

I will have to respectfully disagree with you on that. Federal released their new ammo pricing from the factory, which applies to all ammo produced after June 1, 2013. Nothing is under $1.00 per round except 9mm, which was. 57 per round. .22lr wasn't even on the price guide. This is from the factory. You still have the distributor markup and retail markup on top of those.

Also remember, some gun stores have raised prices because wholesalers have raised prices. While there are some wholesalers that have not raised prices, I can name a whole mess of them who have. Sometimes it is not the gun shops fault that prices are higher. Yes there are gun shops who have participated in market pricing influences. But I know alot of them who have not and just have pricing according to their markup schedules and distributor pricing.

 

[Captken]

That is the proposed price increase as of June1, 2013 which is still several months away, so they are still under their their current pricing which hasn't changed. The more hands the ammo passes through, the more $$ is added to the end product. I'm sure the bigger ammo dealers buy direct from the factories and not having to go through wholesalers like the smaller FFL's do.
Now I can understand supporting a storefront. If a ammo dealer use to have 100 boxes of ammo on the shelf and he made $1 each box, then that was $100 profit. Now that same store has 5 boxes on the shelf but his overhead is the same so he has to charge more to make ends meet.

 

[Drauka99]

Have AR prices in general dropped, YES. Have AR sales in general slowed, YES

Why... because most people who were serious about wanting one and who had the money to buy one has BOUGHT one.

That's just my opinion though.

 

[FrankT]

Aaron, you are right, the ammo prices are way up and I doubt they are going down. This may be part of the grand plan to make ammo too costly for people to shoot and not generally available. Most ammo Mfg's are reporting 75-100% production with no catch up seen in the near future. The gun prices for base models is close to what the OP says but the accessories like triggers, hand-guards, better lowers & uppers, barrels and such are still getting a premium when you can find them. So when you customize an AR you will pay the "New" prices for quite awhile.

 

[wildrider666]

I would bet high cap AR Mags followed the same high and low. Pistol mags are still crazy high.

 

[ilintner]

AR's are falling back towards normal levels for sure, still getting nabbed up before I ever see them at walmart or any other stores that charge "normal" prices though.

 

[Welldoya]

I will have to respectfully disagree with you on that. Federal released their new ammo pricing from the factory, which applies to all ammo produced after June 1, 2013. Nothing is under $1.00 per round except 9mm, which was. 57 per round. .22lr wasn't even on the price guide. This is from the factory. You still have the distributor markup and retail markup on top of those.

Are you saying that the 9mm 100 round value pack of Federal Champion that WalMart sells for $21.99 (was $19.99 up till a couple of months ago) is now going to be wholesale priced at $57 ? And a box of 50 .38s that are now going for $17 are going to be $50 a box wholesale?
Not doubting your sincerity based on the information that you received but I find that hard to believe. If this is true, we are all in trouble and I can't help but believe that there is something sinister going on here.

 

[sureicanfish]

sinister indeed! think i'll make the news picketing in front of the ammo case at the pace walmart?

 

[Captken]

You can tell where the Walmart guns are going and who they are going to. Those are the new in the box guns you see on the different gun sales sites with those that fan the fire saying the ban is coming soon so get it NOW and make me a rich man.
I believe we all have come to the conclusion that the gun ban isn't going to happen now, but there is those that is going to try to keep that flame going for personal gain.
I had a chance to speak to economist a few weeks ago about the gun and ammo shortage and he pretty well summed it up. Ammo factories are ramped up and producing as hard as they can to make as much as they can. Remember, they are after the bucks also and what they don't have, they can't sell. There will be a time in the near future where the demand will fall while they are still ramped up. At that time there will be a glut of ammo on the market and at that time prices will fall being one company will want more market share than the others.

 

[Captken]

Are you saying that the 9mm 100 round value pack of Federal Champion that WalMart sells for $21.99 (was $19.99 up till a couple of months ago) is now going to be wholesale priced at $57 ? And a box of 50 .38s that are now going for $17 are going to be $50 a box wholesale?
Not doubting your sincerity based on the information that you received but I find that hard to believe. If this is true, we are all in trouble and I can't help but believe that there is something sinister going on here.

I agree, if it does come to those prices, people will either quit shooting or start reloading their own. So then the bullet makers will be sitting on pallets of unsold ammo and wondering what happened? Then they start discounting their ammo to get the market moving again and we are back to cheap ammo again.

 

[Fletch]

The prices mentioned are absurd. No way no how will that become the norm. I don't doubt that small shops may have everything priced over a dollar a round but there will be sources of affordable bulk ammo. Many more Georgia Arms type manufactures would open up to meet the demand for affordable bulk ammo for shooters.

Gulf Coast Munitions has a nice ring to it and there are many vacant wharehouses that would be suitable locations. Any investors want to go in with me?

 

[flyandscuba]

You might want to shop around for liability insurance prices for new manufacturer of reloaded ammunition - with no previous track record - before you decide to sink your life savings into a new project at a time when components are scarce and elevated in price...

It is good time for established manufacturers to expand - but not for new ventures. Especially since most new business start-ups fail even under the best of circumstances.