IRMA, Whay ya gonna do?

[Droshki]

Alcohol is about the only thing I'd want to get from the Shoppette most likely to save on the cost versus buying off base but who knows, might not be any cheaper these days.

Really no saving on anything on base these days, I think we had that thread.

However, they do extend this courtesy to non-beneficiaries so they can grab something for quick for lunch.... hot-dog, sandwich, Gatorade, bag-o-chips or even OTC meds......versus these people having to drive all the way off base for something simple like a snack or a bottle of Tums or Aspirin

 

[Droshki]

Absolutely Mark.
I really do not feel that we will even feel the effects of this storm. But deep down i'm putting in some time with them airheads on the WX clannel.
THEN - - -> there is another one that has formed on further out. [ ?? ] --- SAWMAN

Jose:

 

[FrankT]

The more accurate Euro model has it further West, they are conflicted at this point as to who will be more accurate..watch the Weather Channel and FOX

 

[Droshki]

 

[Droshki]

Irma is forecast to remain in a favorable warm water, light shear
environment for the next 36-48 h. The intensity guidance shows a
slow weakening during this time, but Irma is expected to remain at
least a Category 4 hurricane until landfall in Florida. After
landfall, a fairly quick decay in maximum winds is expected due to
land interaction and increased shear, although Irma's large wind
field is likely to still produce hurricane-force winds over a large
area. There are two caveats to the intensity forecast. First, some
additional weakening could occur during the eyewall replacement,
followed by re-intensification as the cycle completes. Second, the
ECMWF, UKMET, and NAVGEM forecast a track over or close to the
coast of Cuba that is not currently a part of the track forecast.
If this occurs, Irma could be weaker than currently forecast along
the later parts of the track.

The initial motion is west-northwestward or 285/14. Irma should
maintain this general trajectory for the next 24-36 h as it moves
along the southwestern side of the subtropical ridge. After that
time, the guidance is in good agreement that the ridge should break
and allow Irma to turn north-northwestward to northward. There
remains some spread between the models on when the turn will occur,
with the GFS/Canadian being on the eastern side of the guidance and
the UKMET/NAVGEM on the left side. The ECMWF, Florida State
Superensemble, and the HFIP Corrected consensus are in the middle
of the guidance envelope, and the new track forecast is in best
agreement with those models. Overall, the new forecast track is
similar to the previous forecast, with minor westward adjustments
at 36 and 48 h.

 

[Viking1204]

Jose in the near term looks harmless but the long range models suggest he might do a loop out in the Atlantic and then head back towards Florida in a couple of weeks, another wait and see I guess. Irma continues to move a lot more West than North and is staying on the Southern edge of her forecast cone, definitely to keep an eye on that bitch for sure!

 

[Droshki]

Jose in the near term looks harmless but the long range models suggest he might do a loop out in the Atlantic and then head back towards Florida in a couple of weeks, another wait and see I guess.

 

[FrankT]

We are not out of the storm yet, looks ok but one never knows

 

[Viking1204]

We won't know until it gets to the Keys Saturday night/Sunday Morning, that will be the determining point in whether it makes the forecasted turn North or not. Irma is currently moving WNW meaning, in last 12 hours + she moved approximately 1 degree North while moving 4.7 degrees West. When it starts moving as much or more North as it's moving West we'll know the turn has started. NHC has it starting a sharper turn North at 2 pm on Saturday so we'll know then it seems.

 

[FrankT]

Well first injury due to Irma, as I was getting gas cans out of the attic I was 1/2 way down, lost balance and fell on my tail bone and back. Painful is all I can say, then the storm was turning thankfully as I could not have done more. Hope nothing was broken but hurts like hell.

 

[SAWMAN]

SHIT !! Need 8 "AA" batts for a game cam.
Went to Wal Fart.
Had to pay pre-storm prices.
Double shit !! --- SAWMAN

 

[Viking1204]

Are you seriously saying Wal Fart had increased the prices? I was in Sam's the other day and prices appeared to be the same....

BTW, latest track shifted West again, now going ashore on West side of Florida near Naples...

 

[Droshki]

BTW, latest track shifted West again, now going ashore on West side of Florida near Naples...

Still slated to be a Cat 1 way before it reaches the panhandle....

 

[Viking1204]

Still slated to be a Cat 1 way before it reaches the panhandle....

View attachment 56725

Only if it actually doesn't go anymore West where it would remain over water, that shows it just barely on shore, wouldn't take much more of a shift West to put it over the water all the way to the Panhandle!

 

[Droshki]

My understanding without going to find the forecast (since Im taking a break from changing aforementioned expansion tank) is that it will encounter increased shear whether it hits land or not.

"The intensity forecast is lowered at 120 h due to the forecast landfall, and even if Irma stays over water it is likely to encounter some vertical shear at that time."

 

[RidgeRunner]

Frank , you OK? A fall like that is hard on us old men.

 

[Ross7]

In a silver lining kinda way, perhaps the storm will thin out those Burmese pythons in the Everglades. :noidea:

 

[rtprthd]

In a silver lining kinda way, perhaps the storm will thin out those Burmese pythons in the Everglades. :noidea:

Or just blow them north.

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

 

[JWlineman]

Looks like I may not even have to leave town to work a storm trip...

Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk

 

[FrankT]

Well another move to the West this AM, another one and we may be in a mess, still waiting for that N move. I can see this ultimately not being inland at all as it comes up the Gulf and that is not a good thing. Prayers for everyone.